Weather Alert in Texas
Hydrologic Outlook issued July 2 at 3:54PM CDT by NWS Brownsville TX
AREAS AFFECTED: Brooks, TX
DESCRIPTION: ESFBRO The Brownsville Texas National Weather Service Office has implemented Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) for the Los Olmos Creek basin in deep South Texas. AHPS enables the National Weather Service to provide long-range probabilistic outlooks. This service is also available on the internet. In the table below...the 90 through 10 percent columns indicate the chance the creek could rise above the listed stage levels in the next 90 days. Example: The Los Olmos Creek near Falfurrias has a flood stage of 11 feet. There is a 50 percent chance the Falfurrias forecast point will rise above 2.5 feet during the next 90 days. Chance of Exceeding Stages at Specific Locations Valid [07/02/2025 - 09/30/2025] Location FS(FT) 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% -------- ----- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- Los Olmos Creek Falfurrias 11.0 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.5 2.9 3.6 4.2 5.3 This long-range probabilistic outlook contains numbers that are calculated using multiple scenarios from 50 years of historical climatological and stream flow data. These numbers also take into account current conditions of the creek and soil moisture. By providing the complete range of probabilistic numbers...the level of risk associated with the long-range planning decisions can be determined. Additional supportive data and explanation are available on the internet at: http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/long_range.php?wfo=bro Long range probabilistic outlooks are issued around the third Thursday of every month.
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Weather Topic: What are Fractus Clouds?
Home - Education - Cloud Types - Fractus Clouds
Next Topic: Freezing Rain
A fractus cloud (scud) is a fragmented, tattered cloud which has
likely been sheared off of another cloud. They are accessory clouds, meaning they
develop from parent clouds, and are named in a way which describes the original
cloud which contained them.
Fractus clouds which have originated from cumulus clouds are referred to as
cumulus fractus, while fractus clouds which have originated from stratus clouds
are referred to as stratus fractus. Under certain conditions a fractus cloud might
merge with another cloud, or develop into a cumulus cloud, but usually a
fractus cloud seen by itself will dissipate rapidly.
They are often observed on the leading and trailing edges of storm clouds,
and are a display of wind activity.
Next Topic: Freezing Rain
Weather Topic: What is Graupel?
Home - Education - Precipitation - Graupel
Next Topic: Hail
Graupel is a form of precipitation that is created by atmospheric conditions
which cause supercooled water droplets to contact snow crystals and freeze to
their surface.
Sometimes known as soft hail or snow pellets, graupel is delicate and easily
destroyed by touch. Whereas hail usually falls during severe weather, graupel
doesn't require such conditions to form, and can form in mild precipitation
similar to situations which produce snowfall.
Next Topic: Hail
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