Weather Alert in Texas

Recent Locations: Port Bolivar, TX  

Hydrologic Outlook issued July 2 at 3:54PM CDT by NWS Brownsville TX

AREAS AFFECTED: Brooks, TX

DESCRIPTION: ESFBRO The Brownsville Texas National Weather Service Office has implemented Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) for the Los Olmos Creek basin in deep South Texas. AHPS enables the National Weather Service to provide long-range probabilistic outlooks. This service is also available on the internet. In the table below...the 90 through 10 percent columns indicate the chance the creek could rise above the listed stage levels in the next 90 days. Example: The Los Olmos Creek near Falfurrias has a flood stage of 11 feet. There is a 50 percent chance the Falfurrias forecast point will rise above 2.5 feet during the next 90 days. Chance of Exceeding Stages at Specific Locations Valid [07/02/2025 - 09/30/2025] Location FS(FT) 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% -------- ----- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- Los Olmos Creek Falfurrias 11.0 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.5 2.9 3.6 4.2 5.3 This long-range probabilistic outlook contains numbers that are calculated using multiple scenarios from 50 years of historical climatological and stream flow data. These numbers also take into account current conditions of the creek and soil moisture. By providing the complete range of probabilistic numbers...the level of risk associated with the long-range planning decisions can be determined. Additional supportive data and explanation are available on the internet at: http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/long_range.php?wfo=bro Long range probabilistic outlooks are issued around the third Thursday of every month.

INSTRUCTION: N/A

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Weather Topic: What is Precipitation?

Home - Education - Precipitation - Precipitation

Precipitation Next Topic: Rain

Precipitation can refer to many different forms of water that may fall from clouds. Precipitation occurs after a cloud has become saturated to the point where its water particles are more dense than the air below the cloud.

In most cases, precipitation will reach the ground, but it is not uncommon for precipitation to evaporate before it reaches the earth's surface. When precipitation evaporates before it contacts the ground it is called Virga. Graupel, hail, sleet, rain, drizzle, and snow are forms of precipitation, but fog and mist are not considered precipitation because the water vapor which constitutes them isn't dense enough to fall to the ground.

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Weather Topic: What are Shelf Clouds?

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Shelf Clouds Next Topic: Sleet

A shelf cloud is similar to a wall cloud, but forms at the front of a storm cloud, instead of at the rear, where wall clouds form.

A shelf cloud is caused by a series of events set into motion by the advancing storm; first, cool air settles along the ground where precipitation has just fallen. As the cool air is brought in, the warmer air is displaced, and rises above it, because it is less dense. When the warmer air reaches the bottom of the storm cloud, it begins to cool again, and the resulting condensation is a visible shelf cloud.

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